Big Payouts and Promises Leave Ohio Pension Plans on the Brink of Collapse – or a Massive Bailout

The Buckeye Institute has released it’s report on the five government pensions “Hanging by a Thread: Big Payouts and Promises Leave Ohio Pension Plans on the Brink of Collapse–or a Massive Bailout.” Adam Schwiebert, their Diehl Fellow, wrote the report.  The report can be found here: http://www.buckeyeinstitute.org/uploads/files/Hanging%20by%20a%20Thread.pdf.

Next, in support of the report and the effort to meaningfully reform Ohio’s government pensions, they have created a dedicated page on their website for pension-related information. Consistent with their other first-in-nation innovative tools (government salary & estimated pension tool; Tax Calculator; and Job Comparison tool), they have created a “Compare Your Retirement” tool that allows you to enter the yearly pension you would like to have when you retire to see how much cash you will need to already have today and how much cash you will need to have when you are ready to retire to have the  pension you desire. As a comparison, they provide you with the actual median yearly pension each of the five pensions pay based on the pensions’ 2010 Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports. They also provide you with how much those median yearly pensions will require and how much government workers will receive in total if they retire when first fully eligible and live to 78 years old. The “Pensions 101″ page and the newest tool can be found at http://www.buckeyeinstitute.org/pensions101/.

Please share this information with your family, friends, and neighbors so that they can better understand the serious financial burdens that our pension system is placing on our state.

The Federal Reserve System Part II

The Genesis of the Fed

The New York Chamber of Commerce established a currency commission to report on the problems associated with an insufficient supply of money. The commission reported their findings in October 1906 and concluded the nation needed a central bank to eliminate currency instability the danger of an inelastic currency. Currency instability refers to the purchasing value of the currency being reduced as a result of inflation. Inelastic supply, to an economist, means that supply does not increase when the demand increases. Another means to describe this lack of money is to call it a liquidity crisis, in which insufficient amounts of money are available to meet an increasing demand. Bankers saw this lack of liquidity as a potential loss of profit as they were unable to issue the loans that were being demanded. There is no sound economic rationale for simply increasing the money supply to relieve a liquidity crisis.

Note: under normal economic laws, when the demand exceeds supply, the price rises. Since interest rates represent the price of money, an increase in demand for money should cause the interest rate to rise. This is a good thing. An increasing interest rate ensures that money will not be borrowed for frivolous reasons; but instead will only be borrowed for purchases that make sound economic sense like buying new capital equipment that can be used by businesses to make more “widgets” on a more economical scale and sell them for a lower price!

This commission report began a series of events that led to the enactment of the Federal Reserve Banking Act in 1916. The panic of 1907, which was the result of inflation stimulated by the President Theodore Roosevelt’s Secretary of the Treasury Leslie Shaw over the previous two years, resulted in the big bankers coming together in agreement that a central bank, as a lender of last resort, was required to stabilize the economy. Shaw was attempting to run the Treasury as if it were a central bank by making open-market purchases; the infusion of Treasury money into the economy resulted in inflation.

The big bankers co-opted the academics into presenting a series of lectures during 1907-1908 that called for the economic reasons for a central bank. In January 1908, Senator Nelson W. Aldrich took the lead in banking reform by establishing a National Monetary Commission (NMC) that was to investigate the currency question of instability and suggest proposals for banking reform. The NMC was a sham; its real mission was to overwhelm the public with supposed academic experts and take the financial issue out of politics by putting the non-elected academics and experts at the forefront.

In September 1909, Chicago banker George M. Reynolds delivered a presidential address to the American Bankers Association calling for a central bank. On September 14, 1909, President Taft suggested the nation seriously consider a central bank during his address in Boston. On September 22, 1909, the Wall Street Journal began a fourteen-part series of front-page editorials entitled “A Central Bank of Issue”. These unsigned editorials were actually written by Charles A. Conant, who was the chief paid propagandist for the NMC.

1910 saw numerous public speaking events and printed materials all in support of a central bank and all by non-elected, supposedly non-political types. Every one of them was careful to make this appear to be grassroots movement without ties to any elected official. These behind- the-scene tactics were totally effective in spreading the word (quite a bit of it lacking facts) and thereby educating the general public for the need to support a central bank movement in America.

On November 22, 1910, a secret meeting was held at Jekyll Island, Georgia. Senator Aldrich and five businessmen representing the largest banking interests in the world at the time, traveled under assumed names in complete secrecy, to the private resort co owned by J.P. Morgan to spend a week in drawing up the bill that would eventually become the Federal Reserve Act. Aldrich presented the bill to his NMC with only minor revisions, and it officially became known as the Aldrich Plan in January of 1911. The elections of 1912 brought a change in party to the White House which required dropping the Aldrich name in favor of a more centrist politician. The bill took the name of Representative Carter Glass from Virginia. The bill underwent numerous revisions but was passed by an overwhelming majority in both houses in December 1913. Even with the changes, it was still virtually the same as the original draft written at Jekyll Island.

Now that the central bank was in place, bankers had no reason to hold gold in their vaults. They could, and did, deposit their gold with the Fed and receive reserves upon which they could make loans. They were able to pyramid their credit and thereby expand the supply of money and credit from coast to coast in a coordinated fashion. This was in inverse pyramid with the bank deposits as the base and an expanding succession of upper layers that represent the effects of that lending through successive lending. Economists refer to these successive layers as compounding or the multiplier effect. Coordination was necessary so that inflation was maintained at a low enough level so as to not upset the people and call for government intervention. In short, bankers had created a goose (the Fed as a central bank) that was laying golden eggs for them to harvest on a daily basis.

The inverse pyramiding of bank credit thus created was three layers deep; the Fed pyramided its notes and deposits on top of the newly centralized gold supply; the national banks pyramided bank deposits on top of their reserves on deposit at the Fed; and the state banks who chose not to join the Federal Reserve System could keep their deposit accounts at national banks and pyramid their credit on top of those deposits.

The Fed sat at the base of the pyramid and could coordinate and control inflation by determining the amount of reserves in their member banks. Prior to the Federal Reserve Act, the reserve requirement for national banks was 20 percent reserves to demand deposits. This meant that banks had to set aside 20 percent of demand deposits while making loans with the remaining 80 percent. That resulted in a money multiplier of 5 since 100 percent divided by 20 percent equals 5; meaning the ratio of demand deposits to new credit creation was 5:1. One of the first acts of the new Fed was to cut the reserve requirement in half to only 10 percent of demand deposits, thereby increasing the credit creation ration to 10:1.

I should note that issuing credit and loans on the demand deposits is not necessarily a bad thing under economic law. The new loan is essentially converting a piece of paper that serves as the loan agreement into checkable deposits. This act of monetizing is known as money creation. Money is created when a loan is issued and then money is destroyed when the loan is paid back. Since the temporary increase in the money supply, or monetary base, is offset by the destruction of money when the loan is repaid it does not result in a permanent increase in the money supply. That borrowed money will be spent to buy goods and services that should help the economy grow. This is only valid because the loans are based on deposits that have actual value. When the Fed creates money out of thin air with nothing to back it other than the full faith and credit of the United States, the increase in the money supply, or monetary base, is not temporary; it is permanent since the Fed never takes the closing position of destroying the money at some time in the future. I will discuss the money supply at length in part III.

The Federal Reserve System Part I

The Fed and monetary policy: the essentials of economics that encourage central banking

Every citizen needs to understand simple economic theory. Unfortunately, modern economic theory is rife with fallacies that are more readily accepted than the basic economic truths. Economics focuses mainly on human behavior and how it related to the market functions of buying, selling, price, and quantity. The underlying assumption is that all people will behave rationally, or in their individual best interest, if given the opportunity to choose between two or more options. For example, if the price of a desired good is reduced, a rational consumer will purchase more at the lower price.

Fist, let’s discuss the concepts of immediate and delayed gratification. Immediate gratification relates to consumption while delayed gratification relates to savings or setting some earned income aside to be used for some future purpose. My generation was taught to save for down payments and outright purchases while the current generation is being coaxed into consuming now by borrowing to buy whatever they want. This immediate gratification leads to an overall increase in consumer debt which is not necessarily beneficial to a healthy economy since some of that debt will need to be written off as bad loans with the associated costs being distributed to those who did not default on their debt!

The concept of taking good money to pay for bad money is certainly not new. The history of almost every nation includes a period of poor economic performance in which bankers made loans by using their depositor’s money to finance those loans. As a result, the bankers were unable to deliver when their depositor’s asked for their money. This was known as a bank failure. Bank failures led to localized economic collapse since the currency issued by that bank was only circulated in the local community. Each bank was printing their own money and the people looked to the government to step in and regulate bankers so that bank failures would be prevented in the future. This is a fundamental economic fear, the fear of loss of savings, which allowed the people to be fooled by the government when a central bank is established.

A central bank is a single banking system within a nation that enjoys a monopoly on printing currency and controlling the amount of that currency in circulation. When any currency is backed by a precious metal like gold or silver, it is said to be commodity money because it has the intrinsic value of the commodity that backs it. In contrast to commodity money we can have fiat money which is paper money with no intrinsic value that is money only because the national government says it is money; it is backed by nothing more than the faith citizens have in their government. Our dollar, the Federal Reserve notes, is fiat money. Since fiat money costs almost nothing to produce, its intrinsic value is also very near nothing.

The Federal Reserve Act became law on December 23, 1913 when signed by President Woodrow Wilson. The Federal Reserve is charged with controlling inflation and unemployment. Unfortunately for us, those two concepts share an inverse relationship; when one goes up the other goes down. An ideal situation would be low inflation and low unemployment. The fed is not a government entity – it is wholly owned by the member banks. The fed is actually a banker’s bank that essentially transfers all bank risks to the taxpayers. In short; large bankers are allowed to keep their profits when they make good loans, and the losses associated with bad loans are passed on to the taxpayers. It is no wonder people are beginning to hate large bankers. The large bankers tolerate smaller community banks but those little banks do not enjoy the protection from loss that their large counterparts have.

Since a central bank is an essential element of a progressive form of government, the progressive era is said to have begun during the Wilson administration. One can argue that the progressive movement was afoot much earlier since the groundwork for the Federal Reserve Act had to be laid in advance of the legislation. My opinion is that the progressive era began when our political leaders presumed to be smarter than the common people and followed though on that belief by enacting legislation that would slowly increase the scope and power of the federal government by taking liberties away from the people and transferring power to the government. For simplicity, I look at the beginning of the 20th century as the beginning of the progressive era because it seems to mark the end of the free market era of capitalism.

A good reference point comes from The 5000 Year Leap: The 28 Great Ideas That Changed the World, by W. Cleon Skousen.

“By 1905 the United States had become the richest industrial nation in the world. With only 5 percent of the earth’s continental land area and merely 6 percent of the world’s population, the American people were producing over half of almost everything – clothes, food, houses, transportation, communications, even luxuries. It was a great tribute to Adam Smith.”

This economic feat was accomplished by the citizen’s ability to prosper at the maximum level in accordance with the four laws of economic freedom.
1. The freedom to try
2. The freedom to buy
3. The freedom to sell
4. The freedom to fail

Those freedoms are heavily regulated by government in today’s economy and that regulation has led us to the point of an economy that is no longer experiencing unrestrained growth; our current growth is actually anemic.

The fed has control over monetary policy, meaning controlling the amount of money in circulation. Fiscal policy is controlled by congress when they enact laws to change tax rates, tax policy, and government spending. Sometimes the fed and congress work in opposition to each other since they each have separate agendas.

In theory, increasing the money supply leads to lower interest rates, higher inflation and lower unemployment. Economic theory can only describe the relationships between variables; it cannot predict the magnitude or timing of the change.

The fed changes the amount of money in circulation by either buying or selling bonds in the open market. Those bonds are generally sold to Goldman Sachs, a firm that can even borrow the money from the fed, as the lender of last resort, to purchase those bonds. Goldman Sachs will earn a profit on every transaction of buying or selling bonds.

In closing, I want to point out a few facts:

When President Obama was sworn in, federal debt was 40% of GDP and is now 79%. Federal debt is expected to be 72% by the end of 2011.

Federal spending went from 20% of GDP to 25% of GDP on his watch so far, with absolutely no indication that is will be reduced in the short term.

We must reduce federal spending and reduce the national debt; raising taxes is the antithesis of that goal. Spending is the problem and one cannot simply reduce debt by borrowing. That would not work in a household situation and it likewise will not work for a government. Sustainable spending levels by definition must be less than the amount of money available.